聯(lián)合研究項(xiàng)目，稟賦效應(yīng)如何影響交易行為

Trading makes the world go ‘round. From goods and services to stocks to intellectual property, the modern economy relies on buying and selling, but people are often reluctant to trade what they have for what they do not have, even when doing so is obxtively irrational. This phenomenon is known as the “endowment effect,” and it limits trade efficiency.

交易推動(dòng)了世界的運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。從商品和服務(wù)到股票再到知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)，現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)依賴于買(mǎi)賣(mài)，但人們?cè)跊](méi)有的東西和已有的東西之間進(jìn)行交易時(shí)常常會(huì)猶豫不決，即使這樣做在客觀上是不合理的。這種現(xiàn)象被稱為“稟賦效應(yīng)”，它限制了交易的效率。

In a new study in the journal Science Advances, Penn Integrates Knowledge University Professor Michael Platt and collaborators at Zhejiang University have developed a frxwork to describe how buyers and sellers make decisions during trading.

在《科學(xué)進(jìn)展》雜志的一項(xiàng)新研究中，賓夕法尼亞大學(xué)知識(shí)綜合教授邁克爾·普拉特和浙江大學(xué)的合作者們開(kāi)發(fā)了一個(gè)框架來(lái)描述買(mǎi)家和賣(mài)家在交易過(guò)程中是如何做出決策的。

“People often make irrational decisions, and we’re interested in understanding why,” says Platt, the senior author on the study.

“人們經(jīng)常做出非理性的決定，我們有興趣了解為什么，”普拉特說(shuō)，他是該研究的高級(jí)作者。

The team also identified distinct physiological mechanisms that underlie this decision-making process. Specifically, they found lixs between the likelihood that a deal would be struck and where (and how long) the buyers and sellers focused their gaze and the degree to which their pupils were dilated. A deal was more likely to be struck when both buyers and sellers attended to potential gains rather than losses and when the pupils of both buyer and seller dilated.

團(tuán)隊(duì)還確定了決策過(guò)程中的不同生理機(jī)制。具體來(lái)說(shuō)，他們發(fā)現(xiàn)達(dá)成交易的可能性與買(mǎi)賣(mài)雙方注視的位置（以及注視的時(shí)間長(zhǎng)短）以及他們的瞳孔擴(kuò)張程度之間存在聯(lián)系。當(dāng)買(mǎi)家和賣(mài)家都關(guān)注潛在的收益而非損失，并且雙方的瞳孔都擴(kuò)張時(shí)，更有可能達(dá)成交易。

The underlying mechanisms behind the endowment effect are unclear, though it has been demonstrated in both real-world settings and lab studies that monitored behavior and brain activity. There are two main non-mutually exclusive theories for why the endowment effect exists. The first one is related to loss aversion — because people feel loss more keenly than gain, they are less likely to want to give up something that they already own.

稟賦效應(yīng)背后的機(jī)制尚不清楚，盡管在現(xiàn)實(shí)世界的設(shè)置和監(jiān)測(cè)行為及大腦活動(dòng)的實(shí)驗(yàn)室研究中都已經(jīng)展示了該效應(yīng)。關(guān)于稟賦效應(yīng)存在的原因有兩大主流并不相互排斥的理論。第一個(gè)理論與損失厭惡有關(guān)——因?yàn)槿藗儗?duì)損失的感覺(jué)比對(duì)收益更為敏感，他們不太愿意放棄已經(jīng)擁有的東西。

“In trading situations, most people focus on what they might lose rather than what they might gain because our vigilance system has evolved to always be on the lookout for threats,” Platt says.

“在交易情境中，大多數(shù)人關(guān)注的是他們可能失去的東西，而不是他們可能獲得的東西，因?yàn)槲覀兊木X(jué)系統(tǒng)已經(jīng)進(jìn)化到總是在尋找威脅，”普拉特說(shuō)。

The second theory posits that the endowment effect is caused by inertia; both sellers and buyers are reluctant to alter the status quo, so they require additional incentive — a discount, or a better premium — in order to overcome this hesitance and make a deal.

第二個(gè)理論認(rèn)為，稟賦效應(yīng)是由于慣性造成的；買(mǎi)家和賣(mài)家都不愿改變現(xiàn)狀，因此他們需要額外的激勵(lì)——一個(gè)折扣或更好的溢價(jià)——來(lái)克服這種猶豫并達(dá)成交易。

Platt’s team wanted to tease apart the relative impact of risk aversion versus inertia in determining the endowment effect’s impact on trading decisions. To do this, the researchers conducted a series of laboratory experiments to test participants’ willingness to buy and sell lottery tickets, and then monitored the participants’ gaze and pupil diameter using a video-based tracking system. They also kept track of how long the participants took to make their decisions. Then, they used this data to build a model to describe how buyers and sellers accumulate evidence.

普拉特的團(tuán)隊(duì)希望區(qū)分風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡與慣性在決定稟賦效應(yīng)對(duì)交易決策影響方面的相對(duì)影響。為此，研究人員進(jìn)行了一系列實(shí)驗(yàn)室實(shí)驗(yàn)，測(cè)試參與者買(mǎi)賣(mài)彩票的意愿，然后使用基于視頻的跟蹤系統(tǒng)監(jiān)測(cè)參與者的注視和瞳孔直徑。他們還記錄了參與者做出決定所需的時(shí)間。然后，他們使用這些數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)構(gòu)建一個(gè)模型來(lái)描述買(mǎi)家和賣(mài)家如何累積證據(jù)。

How Does the Endowment Effect Influence Buyers vs. Sellers?
As expected, the endowment effect was evident for both buyers and sellers. Buyers were slower to choose to buy than to choose not to buy, suggesting hesitancy to acquire lottery tickets at most prices, but sellers were slower to choose to sell than to choose not to sell.

稟賦效應(yīng)如何影響買(mǎi)家與賣(mài)家？
正如預(yù)期的那樣，稟賦效應(yīng)對(duì)買(mǎi)家和賣(mài)家都是明顯的。買(mǎi)家選擇購(gòu)買(mǎi)的速度比選擇不購(gòu)買(mǎi)的速度慢，表明大多數(shù)價(jià)格下他們?cè)讷@取彩票方面有猶豫，但賣(mài)家選擇出售的速度比選擇不出售慢。
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Sellers spent more time looking at their goods — the lottery tickets — while buyers spent more time looking at the price they’d have to pay. However, sellers spent more time looking at their lottery tickets than buyers spent eying prices, suggesting that loss aversion plays a bigger role in the endowment effect for sellers than buyers.

賣(mài)家花更多時(shí)間觀察他們的商品——彩票，而買(mǎi)家則花更多時(shí)間觀察他們需要支付的價(jià)格。然而，賣(mài)家花在彩票上的時(shí)間比買(mǎi)家花在看價(jià)格上的時(shí)間更長(zhǎng)，這表明對(duì)賣(mài)家而言，損失厭惡在稟賦效應(yīng)中的作用大于買(mǎi)家。

“When you look at something, it amplifies the importance of that obxt or information in the brain,” Platt says. “And because people tend to look more at information they value more, there’s a feedback loop; the more you look at something, the more you value it and vice versa.”

“當(dāng)你注視某物時(shí)，它會(huì)在大腦中放大那個(gè)物體或信息的重要性，”普拉特說(shuō)。“而且因?yàn)槿藗儍A向于更多地注視他們更看重的信息，這里有一個(gè)反饋循環(huán)；你越是注視某物，就越是看重它，反之亦然?！?/b>
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